The Population Bust

From Kenya to South Korea, we explore four key aspects of demography in four episodes: declining birth rates, ageing societies, pronatalism and migration.

The last 100 years have seen a boom in trade, prosperity and wealth across the world at unprecedented rates in human history. As a species, we are now wealthier, healthier and less likely to be killed in conflict than ever before, despite the many horrors we see in the daily news cycle. This golden age we live in has run in tandem with an ever-expanding population; in the 1920s, there were only two billion people on the planet. A century later, that number has skyrocketed to eight billion. Yet the increase in prosperity and population has come at a devastating price – global warming, the melting of the ice caps, an epidemic of plastic pollution and the mass destruction of the planet’s biodiversity are all intrinsically connected to population growth. More recently, however, the trend has begun to reverse. The watchful eyes of demographers have been drawn to data that reveal dwindling populations, ageing nations and plummeting fertility rates.

But what are the universal truths behind the red-flag statistics? In this landmark series, we explore the impacts of seismic population shifts in today’s world, told firsthand through the personal stories of everyday people from six different countries across Europe, Africa and East Asia.

Episode 1: Baby Doomers

Fertility rates are falling sharply around the world, driven by a myriad of factors that are determining the way people think about family and motherhood. From the United Kingdom to Kenya, fewer babies are reshaping communities and transforming women’s lives.

We examine the forces driving the global decline in birth rates and ask what falling fertility rates mean for the future: in Brighton, UK, where a drastic drop in pupil numbers has already forced three primary schools to close in a single academic year, a former head teacher reflects on losing the school she fought to save, while a young couple in the city tell us how soaring housing costs are pushing them to reconsider expanding their family.

In Nairobi, a Kenyan social media influencer who recently underwent tubal ligation speaks openly about her decision not to have children, prompting new conversations in Kenya and across Africa about reproductive choice and challenging traditional expectations that every woman should become a mother, regardless of her own ambitions or financial circumstances.

Episode 2: Living in an Ageing World

Approximately 36 million of Japan’s 123 million people are aged 65 years and above — the highest proportion of elderly citizens in the world. It is creating unprecedented societal and economic challenges, which Japan is trying to confront with new ideas about both community and capitalism.

At a public housing complex in Tokyo, where 60 percent of residents are elderly, an innovative approach to community care is being piloted to keep pensioners healthy and out of government-funded care homes. The idea is to reduce the financial burden on taxpayers for care of the elderly, and, if successful, could be rolled out to communities across Japan.

In a depopulated village just outside Tokyo, elderly residents struggle as the population and services hollow out, and in Kiryu City, a traditional “Maid Cafe” is staffed exclusively by women aged more than 65 years, in a bid to bring young and old people together and raise awareness of ageing and loneliness in Japanese society.

Episode 3: Meet the Pronatalists

Hungary’s Orban government-led pronatalist incentives and South Korea’s emerging corporate-driven strategies reveal how states and companies are increasingly intervening to influence personal decisions about having children.

In Hungary, an ambitious raft of pronatalist policies has been introduced to counter declining birth rates. Tax exemptions for large families and state-backed, interest-free loans tied to childbearing illustrate the government’s push to reshape demographics, but some say the policies favour only a certain segment of society and coerce people into “traditional” large-family models. The government’s pronatal stance has also led to the introduction of the controversial “heartbeat law”, which forces women to listen to the heartbeat of their unborn child before terminating their pregnancies.

In South Korea, an even more acute fertility crisis has led to fear of an economic slowdown and prompted the government to encourage big corporations to step in. Companies are now offering IVF funding, expanded childcare, enhanced parental leave and, in some cases, linking promotions to the number of children employees have. There is, however, a section of Korean society that is passionately against such policies, arguing that women are being pressured into having children.

Episode 4: The Great Migration

As Europe ages and a youthful Africa grows, how does migration reshape economies, identities and the issue of population decline?

Across much of rural Italy, ageing populations and declining birth rates have left towns with a shrinking workforce and empty homes. This episode connects these demographic shifts to the presence of newly arrived migrants: people whose search for safety and stability intersects with local communities’ growing need for labour, revitalisation and social support. In this context, migration becomes not only a humanitarian issue but also part of a wider conversation about Europe’s demographic future.

We follow award-winning Sicilian photographer Francesco Bellina, who uses his camera to document migration routes from Africa to Europe. He focuses on the human stories of men, women and children who begin their journeys in sub-Saharan Africa, travel through perilous stretches of North Africa and attempt the dangerous Mediterranean crossing in the hope of reaching European shores. In Roccamena, a sleepy, ageing town in the Sicilian hills dotted with a plethora of empty apartments as a result of a dwindling local population, Francesco collaborates on a photography project with Roccamena’s new residents from West Africa. A story of humanitarian responsibility and community renewal unfolds.